Xpediator PLC

xpediator.com
Ticker: XPD Exchange: AIM

Xpediator Plc is an integrated freight management business operating in the supply chain logistics and fulfilment sector across the UK and Europe with a particular focus on, and expertise in, CEE countries.

Latest Reports

Changes to the Board, but not in strategy

Published: 5th June 2020

Xpediator has announced several management changes. Stephen Blyth, current CEO and Founder, is to become Non-Executive Deputy Chairman, replaced in the interim period by Joint-CEOs. Encouragingly, XPD has managed to retain Stephen’s expertise, energy and perhaps most significantly, his vision. He will also Chair the new M&A group and be a member of the audit committee.

While a formal process is underway to identify the new CEO, the Board has appointed two Interim Joint-CEOs in Robert Ross, currently the Group’s CFO, and Danor Ionescu, the current Group COO of Logistics in Romania. Both have been effectively running the operations for some time.

The recent trading update (26 May 2020) was encouraging, highlighting a relatively limited top-line impact from the COVID-19 disruption. Margins have remained broadly unchanged, reflecting the action on costs taken during Q1. Management also stated recently that the M&A pipeline remains strong, focused on both a widening of the Group’s geographical reach and air and sea transportation.

We do not expect the changes to result in any disruption and still regard XPD shares as strongly supported by the encouraging trading, the net cash (c. 20% of the market capitalisation) and the NAV of 21p/share.

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Positive AGM update

Published: 28th May 2020

While there has been a degree of disruption due to COVID-19, this has been less than management expected and mostly offset at the margin level by the action taken on the cost base during Q1.

Furthermore, the M&A pipeline is healthy and likely to grow further in the current climate; and we are encouraged by the H2 bias to trading, the action taken on costs and only a modest reduction in margins.

In summary, the UK (2019: 42.1% of revenues), Italy and Spain were the worst affected regions in the period. However, this was not universal with e-commerce, temperature-controlled shipping (food and hygiene product distribution) and stationery (home office/schooling) all performing well.

The Group’s operations in the Baltic states and Central & Eastern Europe (“Baltics” and “CEE”, 57.9% of revenues) performed well, reflecting lower impact there of COVID-19. Freight Forwarding and Pall-Ex Romania fared particularly well, exceeding initial expectations.

Note also that the Freight Forwarding division is asset light, acting as a broker, and therefore does not have vehicles or drivers standing idle. Where shortages have occurred and prices risen, the Group has been able to pass those cost increases on to customers.

We maintain our view that the net cash, NAV of 21p/share and the resilient trading to date offer a high degree of comfort, underpinning the stock in the current environment.

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Reassuring outcome and actions

Published: 20th April 2020

Preliminary results to December 2019 were ahead of revised expectations across several metrics, not least revenue, profits, net cash and the dividend. 2020 started strongly, albeit trade was then affected by the COVID-19 related measures during March, meaning that Q1 trading was in-line with expectations.


Steps have been taken to conserve cash and to reduce costs, with the final dividend payable in shares during Q3. The Group’s strategy continues to be ambitious, targeting organic growth supplemented by acquisitions and the pipeline for the latter is reported as strong.


FY20 started well, with Pall-Ex Romania continuing to deliver 20% volume growth and the Freight Forwarding division performing strongly in the CEE region. But activity slowed across most areas during March as the COVID-19 related restrictions took effect. More recently, the Far Eastern and Chinese businesses began to recover towards the end of the quarter following an understandably difficult start to the year.


We continue to be encouraged by actions on costs, the resilient trading, a healthy net cash buffer and the payment of a final dividend. Indeed, the dividend highlights Management’s confidence in the medium-term outlook for the business. The shares are well supported by the Group’s net cash (18% of the market capitalisation) and its NAV of 21p per share.

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Cash rich, asset light

Published: 31st March 2020
Xpediator has issued a COVID-19 related trading update. The key messages are reassuring: the business has a strong balance sheet and is asset light, trading is in line with internal budgets and the group has begun to see activity returning from its Chinese customers following an understandably difficult January and February.
We are encouraged by the comprehensive review of costs, the resilient trading to date, a healthy cash buffer, and the underlying confidence shown in still proposing a final dividend for 2019. 
Trading YTD is broadly in-line with internal expectations, albeit with some areas performing better than others. Freight Forwarding across Europe and Pall-Ex Romania look to have exceeded expectations. Other units such as EMT, which specialises in textiles and fashion, are struggling and revenues from Chinese customers fell sharply in the first ten weeks of the year. 
The Group benefits from being asset light, in effect acting as a broker with limited overheads and few vehicles owned. And the level of net cash outstanding at the 2019-year end has been reconfirmed at a healthy £6.9m. Not only does the cash provide a degree of comfort, but management has confirmed its intention to pay a final dividend for 2019, highlighting confidence.
Notwithstanding the temporary suspension of estimates, we see the net cash level (worth 23% of the market capitalisation) and the historic NAV of 22p per share both underpinning the stock in the current challenging climate.  
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Planning ahead and removing bottlenecks

Published: 6th March 2020
Xpediator has announced the signature of a 20-year lease with AB Ports from Q1 2021 to expand its presence significantly in the Port of Southampton. The new facility will allow the business to improve profit margins on customer stock held at peak times within third-party warehousing and provide the capacity to widen its customer base further. 
Once the facility is both operating efficiently and at high capacity levels, the expected uplift to profitability will be marked from 2022 onwards. It will increase the business’ presence in and around the Port of Southampton by 46%, and warehousing within the Group by a chunky 34% to 790,000 sq ft in total. 
The agreement will ‘future proof’ the ISL business, enabling it to meet peak demand levels and provide expansionary growth. Current peak demand levels are filling the existing Group capacity, and in 2018 and 2019 the excess was fulfilled via external warehousing, thereby reducing the capacity for growth in the future. 
Initially, there are cost implications to the new facility, with management of the opinion that it is likely to take several months to fill the site. A factor in that is because ISL is very active in the toy industry and generates peak demand in the August to November period. But we then see an anticipated uplift in revenues from the new facility of c. £12.5m from 2022. One should then expect an improvement in margins, highlighting the reduced need for external warehousing. At a conservative operating margin of 6.4% before central costs, the new facility should add c. £0.8m per annum to EBITA from 2022.      
We leave estimates unchanged, as is our fair value per share at 48p. At the end of FY19, we anticipate that net cash amounted to 20% of the Group’s market capitalisation, placing the current rating on a cash adjusted FY20 PER of just 6.8x.
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Out with the old..

Published: 11th February 2020
2019 proved successful on several measures, not least organic revenue growth, cash generation, the performance of the Baltic operations and the turnaround of Benfleet. That said, management is likely to be glad that a challenging year is over. It has taken swift action where required, reducing the cost base and upgrading the Board. The Group is trading in-line with revised expectations, with year-end net cash levels some way ahead of our estimates and underpinning dividend expectations. 
 
Yesterday's trading update demonstrated strong growth in revenues, with an additional £18m (+10.4%) generated organically, and a further £15m from acquisitions. Overall revenues of £212m was £5m ahead of our estimate, which is encouraging. Standouts amongst the strong performances were the activities in the Baltic region (Freight Forwarding in Lithuania and Estonia), the Pall-Ex Romania franchise (a 21.7% y-o-y increase in pallets handled, to 60.700 per month) and the turnaround of Benfleet Far Eastern.
 
We anticipated net cash of £3.2m by the end of 2019. The outcome of £6.9m was significantly ahead, reflecting active cash collection and lower deferred consideration paid, which more than offset the increase in capex (particularly on IT). The high cash level not only underpins dividend expectations but provides options for management in terms of M&A opportunities. The short-term focus is on fully integrating past acquisitions and increasing the level of cross-selling throughout the Group.     
 
The positive outlook and management’s swift action on costs/issues appear to underpin our 2020 estimates. Furthermore, net cash amounts to a significant 18% of the current market capitalisation. 
 
XPD shares are trading on a 2020F PER multiple of just 8.8x and markedly below our unchanged fair value of 48p/share.
 
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All change

Published: 22nd November 2019
Xpediator has issued several announcements relating to Board changes during November: two Non-Executive Directors and a CFO have been appointed, plus the interim CFO will stay with the group. We view the appointments favourably, adding significant UK and international industry experience to the Board. It is also worth noting the subsequent purchase of shares by both new NEDs, suggesting confidence in XPD’s outlook. 
 
Following the departure of Stuart Howard, the previous permanent CFO, in early September, Xpediator has announced that Robert Ross will be joining the Group as CFO from 1 January. Robert joins from Europa Worldwide Group (“Europa”), where he held the position of Finance Director for four years. Europa specialises in European distribution; worldwide air and sea freight; logistics; national distribution and project forwarding and exhibitions. The business is based in Kent with revenues of £175.9m in the year to December 2018 and is therefore only modestly smaller than Xpediator.
 
Earlier this month the Group announced the recruitment of two new Non-Executive Directors, Wim Pauwels and Charles McGurin. Wim is Belgian and has a career spanning 40-years within the logistics industry. In addition, the interim CFO, Richard Myson, has been appointed to the role of Commercial Director, and joins the Operating Board. Richard has 15 years’ experience within Xpediator in senior financial and commercial roles.  
 
At 48p/share, our fair value stands well above the level of the stock price. Furthermore, the recent preliminary approach for competitor Clipper Logistics seems to underpin the inherent strategic value of Xpediator plc.  
 
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Cost of growth

Published: 7th October 2019
To us, there are three standout features within Xpediator’s interim results: significant investment for growth, revenues broadly in-line with previous expectations and short-term difficulties across a few of the business areas. 
 
Sales of £102.4m are in-line with prior expectations, given the H2 trading bias. However, whether facilities are filling capacity slower than initially expected, or due to temporary disruptions, margins were squeezed in some instances. The investment in management and IT has markedly increased the cost profile of the business, albeit it has cemented the foundation for future growth. 
 
It has been an eventful year to date. Management has looked to invest in the infrastructure of the business, to facilitate future growth and remove potential bottlenecks. While this approach is likely to pay dividends over the longer term, there have been short term cost implications. Also, disturbances within some businesses during H1, due to either temporary closures/disruptions or capacity filling at a slower than expected pace, had a knock-on effect on margins and adj. PBT/EPS. As a result, we have reduced our dividend estimate, with the new expectation covered 3.4x and equating to a forward yield of 3.5%.
 
Despite the disruption to some of the Group’s operations, revenues are trending in-line with prior estimates. This is encouraging. That said, in the face of Brexit and the higher than anticipated cost base, we have reduced estimates for adj. PBT/EPS further. Management has guided on the adj. PBT outcome for FY2019F of £5.0m and because of the H1 result; a traditional H2 bias to sales, and temporary disruptions cleared, we believe this to be very achievable. Looking further forward, we prefer to take a very conservative stance and suggest 5% top-line growth into FY2020F and broadly static margins. We have assumed that dividend growth is likely to be progressive from here. 
 
We have built several valuation models for Xpediator, of which the peer group comparison is the most bullish. The average when including a three-stage dividend discount model and a DCF amounts to a fair value of 53p / share. In addition, one should bear in mind that net cash amounts to 12.4% of the current market capitalisation, rising to 15.5% by the end of FY2020 on our forecasts. 
 
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Tougher trading

Published: 30th July 2019
Previously we have highlighted the scale of the investment programme being undertaken in the business during 2019. This investment in headcount and IT infrastructure has been accelerated in order to reflect opportunistic events, notably a large customer providing notice on an existing contract and preparations for a ‘no deal Brexit’. Unfortunately trading in several businesses has failed to match previous expectations, which would have otherwise covered the rising costs. 
 
The E-commerce division has suffered the most in terms of trading, with approximately half of the reduction in divisional EBITA due to the investment required by a large forthcoming contract framework with a sizeable customer. The combination of the higher costs associated with expanding the number of geographies within the franchise network for EshopWedrop and flat revenues have resulted in a modest reduction in profitability versus previous expectations. 
 
Within the Logistics division, more than half of the divisional profit shortfall reflects the decision by a customer of Delamode UK to exit the Group’s large facility in Braintree, Essex. As a result, management has decided to upgrade the facility to enable higher margin fulfilment capability, replacing the current low margin storage offering. Unfortunately, in the meantime the facility will need to temporarily close in order to carry out the upgrade. 
 
Trading elsewhere has performed at least to budgeted expectations. Both Anglia Forwarding and Pallex Romania continue to perform strongly, with the recovery at Benfleet ongoing. The smallest division, Affinity Transport Solutions continues to trade well and in-line with expectations. 
 
As such, we have reduced EPS estimates by 25.5% in FY19 and by 13.3% in FY20. Owing to ongoing strong cash generation, we now anticipate net cash at the year end to be £4.1m. Our DCF and dividend discount model suggest a fair valuation of 60p /share, which would give a FY20F PER of 12.3x and a FY20F PEG of 0.3.  
 
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Investing for growth

Published: 5th June 2019
The AGM update from Xpediator provides further strong evidence of investment in management better able to support the Group’s rapid growth in revenues. The Group’s enhanced infrastructure should enable further acquisitions sourced from a strong pipeline of bolt-on opportunities. They can again be rapidly integrated and enhanced post-deal. Trading YTD has performed in-line with expectations, benefitting from strong progress within Freight Forwarding. 
 
In addition to hiring two senior managers during Q1, the roles of the current CEO and CFO are to change. Stephen Blyth, CEO, is to become Executive Chairman and Stuart Howard, CFO, will assume the role of CEO from September. The Group is currently searching for a new CFO and until appointment Stuart will remain as CFO. Stephen will continue to focus on the strategic direction of the Group and, aided by Head of M&A and Integration Simon Youd, he will be responsible for M&A. Prior to joining Xpediator, Stuart had wide experience of CEO and COO roles within both financial services and private equity, so he is well qualified. 
 
Today’s RNS confirmed that the Group is trading in-line with market expectations, benefitting from strong progress within the Freight Forwarding division. As such, we maintain our expectation of 16% y-o-y top-line growth, believing the bias towards H2 trading (responsible for c.56% of annual revenues) warrants our ‘no change’ stance.
 
We continue to anticipate further M&A activity this financial year, with the statement confirming a strong pipeline of bolt-on opportunities. Our expectation is that management will look to widen the geographical and product/service footprint of the Group, paid for by a combination of the existing cash resources and strong cash flow.
 
A high Free Cash Flow yield such as 10.9% for XPD is often an indicator of significant undervaluation in a company’s shares, in this case due to Brexit fears. Our valuation/share of 74p shows to what extent such worries appear overdone with the stock at 45p.
 
 
 
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Free cash flow yield high

Published: 29th April 2019
Xpediator (XPD) is an integrated freight management business. The Group has three main business areas: freight forwarding services, logistics and warehousing and transport services. Revenues are derived from the UK (39.2% of Group revenue), CEE and Baltic states (60.8%).
 
It has just delivered a strong outcome for FY2018. Revenues and profitability on all measures grew strongly, reflecting a combination of organic and acquisition-led growth. The Group’s net cash position strengthened further during the year. The outlook suggests another year of strong growth in FY2019, with an emphasis on cash generation. We anticipate Free Cash Flow of £6.6m in FY2019F, rising to £6.7m in FY2020F, suggesting FCF yields of above 10% in each of the forecast years.
 
Although the valuation has succumbed to a hefty Brexit discount, trading continued to be strong throughout FY2018, indeed accelerating during H2. The FY2018 outcome was ahead of our revised expectations on all metrics but most significantly in terms of net cash, which rose to £3.2m and more than warranted the beat in terms of declared final dividend versus to expectation. Both gross and operating margins showed y-o-y progress during H2, with the EBITA return at record levels during the period. 
 
Two acquisitions were made during the year, Anglia Forwarding and Import Services, both of which delivering strong growth following their integration into the group. We anticipate further M&A activity to occur in the current year, funded in part through cash flow and the group’s cash balances. 
 
Our valuation models suggest a fair value/share of 78p, highlighting the marked discount Xpediator finds itself relative to peers. With our estimates of FCF of £6.6m in FY2019F and £6.7m in FY2020F, this suggests an FCF yield of 10.6% in both years, again showing the scale of the 'Brexit discount' afforded the Group.
 
 
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'Significant growth' confirmed

Published: 19th February 2019

Xpediator’s pre-close trading update said that revenues and profits are both in-line with market expectations. Top-line growth was significantly ahead, rising 54% y-o-y to c.£179m (c.1% ahead of ED estimate), while profits have more than doubled to c.£7.1m. The uplift to revenues has been driven by organic growth, most notably in Freight Forwarding (Baltics and Balkans), Pall-Ex Romania, and Affinity. Plus, there were benefits from the acquisition of ISL and Anglia Forwarding in 2018, and Regional Express in late 2017.

 FY2018F proved eventful, with two acquisitions made and strong organic progress witnessed across much of the Group. The acquisition of Anglia Freight in June and ISL in July added approximately £21m of revenues, accounting for c.18% of the y-o-y increase. The wider group has benefitted from the sea and air freight capabilities, wider customer base and service offerings added

 

The significant improvement in revenues in the Group’s operations in the Baltic states and the Balkans, despite challenging comparatives, reflects the continued development of the customer base within the Freight Forwarding division and the rising revenues from Greece (via the Group’s Bulgarian operations).

There is a comprehensive investment programme underway during FY2019F, which is likely to boost central headcount. There will be further improvement in systems and expansion of the warehousing footprint. We think this is likely to have a small short-term impact on margins in FY2019F, but then resulting in ongoing improvement in returns as early as FY2020F onwards.

 

Management has suggested that the acquisition pipeline remains strong, as do the opportunities for organic growth. With approximately two-thirds of revenues generated outside of the UK, we believe that the share price has recently over-reacted to Brexit uncertainty and as a result consider it on attractive valuations currently. Xpediator’s shares are now at a FY2019F PER of just 10.9x and well below our valuation of 85p.

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Life in the fast lane

Published: 18th October 2018
Xpediator (XPD) is an integrated freight management business. The Group has three main business areas: freight forwarding services, logistics and warehousing and transport services.
 
Interim results to end of June demonstrated very strong progress, with revenues and operating profits rising 61% and 133% respectively, and underlying growth of 30%. Organic operating profit was 61% ahead y-o-y. Current trading remains in-line with expectations, and demand for freight management services across all core markets is high. To underline this confidence, the interim dividend was increased 21% y-o-y to 0.42p / share. 
 
Key drivers of top-line growth included: strong organic progress at EshopWedrop, record demand at Pall-Ex Romania, the continued move in favour of full loads within Freight Forwarding, the new warehouse in Romania, and new customer wins. 
 
The operating margin declined to 2.1% (H1 2017: 2.7%), which reflected a combination of the investment in support functions, the switch in favour of full-loads, new franchises within EshopWedrop, the rise in ferry crossings in Romania and the marked increase in deferred income.
 
Adjusted Earnings rose 34% to £1.4m and by 18% on an underlying basis. However, adjusted EPS were slightly lower (-3.6%), owing to the payment of deferred consideration for EMT (£1.1m) and the full-period effect of last year’s IPO and placing in late November.  
 
Even after adjusting estimates modestly lower, we believe that a share price of 90p is merited. Not only is the current share price remaining at a valuation discount to a basket of its competitors, but we also expect further accretive acquisitions that are likely to result in greater earnings momentum and subsequent increase in our fair value. 
 
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Acquisition and placing

Published: 11th July 2018
Xpediator (XPD) is an integrated freight management business. The Group has three main business areas: freight forwarding services, logistics and warehousing and transport services. Revenues are derived from the UK (23.5% of Group revenue), CEE and Baltic states (76.5%).
 
It has acquired Import Services Limited (ISL), part-funded via a placing of 10m new ordinary shares. The acquisition represents the Group’s fourth since IPO and significantly expands the Group’s capabilities at the Port of Southampton, adding a contract logistics business and in excess of 40,000 sqm of warehousing. We anticipate many operational synergies, expansion opportunities and cross-selling potential to emerge from the deal.  
 
We anticipate benefits to ultimately arise from combining the Group’s four facilities in Southampton, with cross-selling of freight forwarding services into ISL and the new subsidiary taking on contract warehousing work from Regional Express. In addition, there is the opportunity to develop further warehousing space (20k sqm) in the port, thereby consolidating the Group’s presence in the area. The Group now has a major presence in the two UK ports servicing non-EU trade, which should augur well post-Brexit.  
 
XPD has raised £7m before expenses, via a placing of 10m shares at 70p. The consideration amounts to £12m, on a cash and debt-free basis, of which £9m is payable on completion. This cost is to be funded by a cash payment of £6m and £3m in shares, with the outstanding £3m dependent upon the future results of ISL, coupled with the share price of XPD in late May 2020. The £9m initial consideration equates to a historic, fully taxed earnings multiple of 6.0x, which we regard as good value in view of the strategic importance of the deal to the Group.
 
We have updated our financial expectations following the acquisition of ISL and related placing. In terms of earnings per share, we have increased our expectations for FY2018F by 9.5% and by 11.5% in FY2019F. We anticipate that net cash at the FY2018F year end is now likely to amount to £3.1m, rising to £7.3m in FY2019F. 
 
Dividend forecasts increase, too, and our updated discount model now suggests that 97p per share is a fair value at the current time, but investors will clearly hope for further accretive acquisitions to bolster earnings’ momentum. The shares stand on undemanding multiples (two-year PEG ratio of 0.65x) relative to prospects.
 
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'Walking the talk' - another good deal

Published: 7th June 2018
Xpediator (XPD) is an integrated freight management business. The Group has three main business areas: freight forwarding services, logistics and warehousing and transport services. Revenues are derived from the UK (23.5% of Group revenue), CEE and Baltic states (76.5%).
 
XPD has announced that it has acquired Anglia Forwarding Group (‘Anglia’), its third purchase since IPO last year. We anticipate strong scope for integration benefits, some of which are likely to emerge in the very short-term, not least the move of the Group’s export freight consolidation base into Anglia’s main warehouse facility. 
 
In addition, there is significant scope for cross-selling between the businesses, particularly in the US, utilising the acquired business’ presence in air and sea freight, and in the Midlands. Anglia also has strong European road freight links, notably in Germany, which can be developed further. 
 
Anglia is a founding member of United Shipping, which is a worldwide network of independently owned and locally operated freight forwarders and customs brokers, focused predominantly on air and sea freight. This relationship potentially opens an extensive customer base globally, which we expect to be linked with Regional Express’ association with Amazon, where the Group has over 1,000 customers in the USA.
 
We see a positive impact of the acquisition on our forecasts and, after taking into account the recent FY2017 results and trading comments, raise our EPS estimates by 2.8% in FY2018F and by 2.3% in FY2019F. Using our previous valuation methodologies, a share price of 74.5p appears merited.  
 
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Investor Forum, March 2018

Published: 2nd April 2018
Stephen Blyth, CEO, outlines the Group's structure, examines recent financial statements and discusses the Group's future growth strategy.

Accelerating growth ?

Published: 15th March 2018
Xpediator (XPD) is an integrated freight management business. The Group has three main business areas: freight forwarding services, logistics and warehousing and transport services. Revenues are derived from the UK (23.5% of Group revenue), CEE and Baltic states (76.5%).
 
As demonstrated by the recent trading update, XPD continues to grow rapidly by acquisition and also organically (+46% year-on-year in 2017). We anticipate further strong growth during the course of our estimates, too.
 
Well-established position with the CEE region and the Baltic states and therefore a competitive advantage over late entrants to the region. The CEE region and Baltic states are growing much faster in GDP terms than either the UK or the remainder of the EU. This positioning, should help the Group benefit from continued re-shoring of manufacturing from the Far East. 
 
Eshopwedrop and Pall-Ex Romania are still in their relative infancies, growth-wise, in our opinion. We anticipate Eshopwedrop, which is now profitable, will grow strongly in both existing markets and by new / forthcoming franchise agreements in Georgia, Albania, Greece, Bulgaria, Ukraine and the USA. The strong growth of Eshopwedrop is expected to result in a cross-selling of warehousing and distribution services.
 
In addition, Xpediator is looking to open new office locations within the freight forwarding division in the UK. Within the transport & logistics division, management is seeking to open strategically located warehouse facilities (UK Midlands), driven by e-commerce and introduce new services in both existing and new markets. 
 
As management own 68% of the company, their interests are fully aligned with external shareholders and they are fully focused on value creation. On a forecast 2019 PER of 10.8x and yield of 4.1% the shares appear lowly rated despite the many growth opportunities. This is reinforced by our own valuation calculation using three different methodologies: peer group comparisons, discounted cash flow, and dividend discount model. This suggests a share value of 74p is merited, still well above current levels despite recent gains.
 
 
NB you can meet CEO and Founder Stephen Blyth at the ED Investor Forum on March 28th, please register here: 
https://www.eventbrite.co.uk/e/equity-development-investor-forum-march-2018-tickets-43192146874?ref=elink
 
 
 
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